BTC Rally: Is it Over? Spot ETFs & Halving Hint Bullish Future

Bitcoin dips below $62,000 amid geopolitical tensions, with upcoming halving and potential ETFs offering bullish signals.

By Bill Bullington

4/16, 14:45 EDT
Bitcoin / U.S. dollar

Key Takeaway

  • Bitcoin's recent 16% pullback is viewed as a normal correction within bull markets, with historical precedents suggesting potential for future gains.
  • The upcoming Bitcoin halving and the introduction of spot ETFs by major financial firms could provide tailwinds for BTC prices.
  • Despite short-term market jitters, long-term demand for BTC remains strong, evidenced by consistent interest in longer-term call options.

Market Turbulence Amid Geopolitical Strife

The crypto markets experienced a significant downturn over the weekend, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $62,000, marking a more than 15% decrease from its record high above $73,000. Altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Pepe Coin (PEPE), and Dogwifhat (WIF) saw even steeper declines, dropping 40%-50% from their recent peaks. This sharp correction was influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, alongside macroeconomic factors such as rising bond yields and the U.S. dollar strength, reflecting investor concerns over potential military escalations and inflationary pressures.

Bitcoin Halving and ETF Dynamics

The upcoming Bitcoin halving, a significant event that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by half, is anticipated later this week. Despite historical trends showing minimal immediate price movement around past halvings, Joel Kruger of LMAX Group suggests limited upside momentum from the event itself, given its well-anticipated nature. However, the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. by financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity could introduce Bitcoin to a broader investor base, potentially creating tailwinds for Bitcoin's price. Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg Intelligence highlighted BlackRock's advertising efforts for its Bitcoin fund IBIT, indicating a ramp-up in sales strategies targeting financial advisors and wealth managers.

Macro Concerns and Crypto Resilience

The recent market downturn was also exacerbated by macroeconomic concerns, including fears of sticky inflation and the potential for sharp declines in U.S. equities, as noted by Noelle Acheson. Despite these challenges, Acheson suggests that the crypto market's drop could be short-lived, buoyed by narratives around Bitcoin's value as a store of value and hedge against currency devaluation, among other factors. The market's resilience is further underscored by the massive liquidation of over $1.5 billion in bullish bets, which, according to Vetle Lunde of K33 Research, has led to a healthier market environment by reducing excessive leverage.

Street Views

  • Joel Kruger, LMAX Group (Neutral on Bitcoin):

    "As far as the halving event goes, we’ve been in the camp where we don’t expect there to be much additional upside momentum... this is a known event that has been well telegraphed by the market." "At the same time, we do believe there is some room for a rally when considering this is the first bitcoin halving that will be playing out in front of a much wider audience, now that the bitcoin spot ETFs are up and running."

  • Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence (Neutral on crypto markets):

    Mentioned BlackRock advertising its bitcoin fund IBIT but did not provide a direct quote.

  • Noelle Acheson, Macro Analyst (Cautiously Optimistic on Crypto Assets):

    "If [the stock market] drops sharply, BTC and other crypto assets could get temporarily hit as well... The crypto drop would be short-lived, though, as other ongoing narratives – store of value, halving, currency hedge, new use cases growing adoption – will encourage accumulation at lower levels."

  • Vetle Lunde, K33 Research (Bullish on Crypto Market Health):

    "The market is now much healthier. Both open interest and funding rates have been drastically reduced reducing the likelihood of liquidation cascades onwards. This accompanied by a bitcoin holding firm above $60 000 is a robust signal."

  • On-Chain College (Crypto Analyst) (Neutral/Bullish on Bitcoin's Correction Pattern):> "Few understand how normal corrections like these are in bull markets."

  • QCP Capital (Hedge Fund) (Bullish on BTC and ETH Long-Term Outlook): > "Continued to see consistent sizable demand for BTC and ETH calls for longer-term expiries out to March 2025 signaling that market participants still expect higher prices coming."