“The US equity market will continue to rely on a handful of megacap stocks for direction until an uptick in real interest rates ignites recession fears... That concentration will remain intact until real 10-year yields — rates adjusted to reflect the true cost of funds — rise to around 3%, or higher yields combine with higher credit spreads to threaten recession.”

 “The tactical bounce appears poised to continue with the keys being megacap tech earnings and PCE releases this week... Should all of these hit, you may see markets overshoot to the upside but feels like buy-the-dip has kicked in.”

 “The selloff in stocks isn’t over yet as macroeconomic risks mount, including rising bond yields and elevated oil prices.”

 “Washed out and deep oversold conditions have not expanded to the point we feel confident a real low has been formed, even as a near-term bounce is likely... History suggests we are nearing a tactical low with a growing likelihood of a bounce developing. This may not be the optimal ‘low’ to buy, but selling at this point is not something we recommend.”

 “I think as long as inflation tracks better than expected, I think we’re in a good position to rally.”

 “Stocks appear tactically attractive... While we think the S&P may be within 2-4% of its correction low, the final inflection point may still be several weeks away... For now, investors should use down days opportunistically and keep near-term expectations balanced.”

 “We anticipate a bounce to materialize early this week... So far, the SPX’s correction stands at -5.9% on an intraday basis... While we don’t expect things to play out the same from here, it’s worth noting that a similar final drawdown would bring SPX to ~4700.”

 “We think cautious optimism is still warranted.”

 “Investors are expecting S&P 500 earnings-per-share to accelerate by almost 20% by the fourth quarter compared to the projected first-quarter levels... That hurdle rate is too steep in our opinion.”

 “I’m fairly optimistic about this earnings season and I don’t expect there to be any horrors. The key thing is that the fundamentals of a company are what’s getting reflected in the share price rather than macro factors. Up until now, it was rates and inflation that had been driving asset prices.”