SUPERNEWS

Equities

Vertex's Non-Opioid Pain Pill: $5.1B Market Potential by 2030

By Alex P. Chase

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1/30, 08:21 EST
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

Key Takeaway

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals' non-opioid pain pill, VX-548, matched a common opioid's effectiveness in trials, offering a potential new pain treatment option.
  • VX-548 is well-tolerated with no serious adverse events reported, positioning it as a safer alternative to opioids if approved by the FDA.
  • Despite not outperforming opioids in efficacy, analysts predict significant market potential for VX-548 with sales possibly reaching $5.1 billion by 2030.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals' Breakthrough in Pain Management

Vertex Pharmaceuticals has made significant progress with its experimental non-opioid pain pill, VX-548. The drug showed promising results in studies for acute pain treatment, outperforming a placebo and demonstrating similar effectiveness to a commonly used opioid. If approved, VX-548 could be the first new pain medicine in decades and provide a much-needed alternative to opioids amid the ongoing opioid epidemic.

Potential Market Impact and Analyst Projections

Despite not showing superior efficacy to opioids, analysts remain optimistic about VX-548's potential impact on the market. Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger projects sales of $5.1 billion by 2030 for acute pain alone if the drug is successful. This success would be transformative for Vertex as it aims to surpass $10 billion in annual sales for the first time in its history.

Regulatory Approval and Market Outlook

Vertex plans to seek FDA approval for VX-548 as a treatment for moderate-to-severe acute pain by mid-year. However, questions remain about insurance coverage and competition against cheap generic opioids. Goldman Sachs analyst Salveen Richter believes that if VX-548 proves as effective as an opioid, Vertex's stock shares could see an additional increase of $58 each.

The potential approval of VX-548 represents a significant milestone not only for Vertex but also for patients seeking effective pain relief without resorting to opioids.

STREET VIEWS

  • David Risinger, Leerink Partners Analyst (Bullish on Vertex Pharmaceuticals):

    "What we see here is data that supports…the potentially first new acute pain medicine in 25 years."

  • Salveen Richter, Goldman Sachs Analyst (Neutral on Vertex Pharmaceuticals):

    "If VX-548 appears to work as well as an opioid, the stock’s shares could be worth an additional $58 each."

Management Quotes

  • Dr. David Altshuler, Vertex’s Chief Scientific Officer:

    "What we see here is data that supports…the potentially first new acute pain medicine in 25 years." "The issue with opioids is safety and tolerability. And then you look at our safety and tolerability profile."

  • Stuart Arbuckle, Vertex’s Chief Operating Officer:

    "I don’t think that not being able to claim that it’s superior to an opioid is going to limit people’s enthusiasm for the medicine."