SUPERNEWS

Macro

JPMorgan Sees 17% S&P Plunge Amid AI Hype

JPMorgan remains bearish, citing overpriced valuations and geopolitical risks, contrasting with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America's bullish S&P 500 targets.

By Barry Stearns

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3/12, 13:23 EDT
S&P 500
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Bank of America Corporation
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
JP Morgan Chase & Co.
NVIDIA Corporation

Key Takeaway

  • JPMorgan maintains a bearish outlook, predicting a 17% drop in the S&P 500 to 4,200, citing overvaluation and geopolitical risks.
  • The firm contrasts with Wall Street's average year-end S&P forecast of 5,032 and highlights inflation as a persistent threat.
  • Warns Nvidia's AI-driven surge could reverse sharply, impacting the broader market.

JPMorgan's Bearish Stance Amid Market Optimism

JPMorgan, diverging from the more optimistic outlook on Wall Street, maintains a bearish view on the market, citing overpriced valuations and extreme crowding in momentum stocks as primary concerns. Marko Kolanovic, the firm's chief market strategist, highlighted the risks of a sharp correction in momentum stocks, geopolitical tensions, political uncertainties, and skewed inflation risks. Kolanovic's stance is underweight equities and overweight cash, suggesting a cautious approach towards the current market dynamics.

Wall Street's Divergent Forecasts

While JPMorgan predicts a significant drop in the S&P 500 to 4,200, marking a more than 17% decline by 2024, other major banks have set their sights higher. In contrast, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 to 5,200 and 5,400, respectively, driven by an improved earnings outlook and bullish sentiment. This divergence underscores the uncertainty and varying perspectives on Wall Street regarding the market's future direction.

Risks Underestimated by Investors

Kolanovic warns that investors are underestimating significant risks that could impact the market negatively. He points to geopolitical conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, the transition towards a multipolar world order, and the challenges of upcoming elections in various countries as factors that could increase volatility. Additionally, the difficulty in achieving the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target suggests that interest rates could remain higher for longer, contrary to market expectations of rate cuts starting in June.

Nvidia's Influence and AI Euphoria

The strategist also expressed concerns over Nvidia's outsized influence on the S&P 500's recent gains, driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. Kolanovic cautions that the bullish sentiment and positioning around Nvidia, and by extension AI, could reverse sharply if the AI euphoria peaks, potentially dragging down the S&P 500. This highlights the vulnerability of the market to shifts in investor sentiment and specific stock movements.

Street Views

  • Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan (Bearish on the market):

    "Markets are priced for perfection as valuations are rich, and extreme crowding in momentum stocks risks a sharp correction in this factor... Additionally, we believe that markets are ignoring the substantial geopolitical and political risks given their apparent lack of immediacy, and that inflation risks are skewed to the upside, which could keep central banks’ target rates higher for longer."