Marvell Eyes $20B by 2028, Rivals Nvidia in AI Surge

Key Takeaway

• Marvell Technology gains traction in AI, with analysts projecting its AI-specific IC sales could hit $7-$8 billion by 2028.
• Analysts forecast Marvell's total revenues to reach $20 billion by 2028, driven by AI and autos, with a recent stock increase of 19% this year.
• Despite competition, Marvell's growth in AI positions it alongside giants like Nvidia and Intel in the expanding semiconductor ecosystem.

AI's Expanding Frontier

Marvell Technology is emerging as a significant player in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, with Wall Street analysts highlighting its potential alongside industry giant Nvidia. UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri emphasized Marvell's broad intellectual property portfolio and its leverage across the data center as key factors in its AI ascendancy. This comes after Marvell's announcement of a new compute customer, speculated to be Microsoft, which has contributed to the stock's 19% increase this year. JPMorgan's Harlan Sur and Goldman Sachs' Toshiya Hari also projected strong growth for Marvell in the AI and data center markets, with Sur estimating AI-specific integrated circuits sales could reach $7 billion to $8 billion by 2028.

Revenue and Market Share Projections

Analysts are optimistic about Marvell's financial trajectory, with projections of reaching $20 billion in total revenues by the 2028 calendar year. This growth is expected to be driven by opportunities in various segments, including autos. Wells Fargo analyst Gary Mobley has adjusted revenue and earnings per share estimates upwards for 2025, anticipating a quicker ramp in AI sales. This aligns with the broader industry trend of increasing demand for AI capabilities, which is not only propelling Marvell but also benefiting its suppliers and the entire semiconductor ecosystem.

Competitive Landscape and Industry Growth

Despite Marvell's promising outlook, Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore expressed a preference for Nvidia, citing Marvell's "sideways" action over the last year and its elevated multiple. However, the broader context includes Nvidia's recent earnings release, which showcased significant revenue growth driven by AI, and Intel's first-ever chip foundry event, underscoring the interconnected growth of AI across tech giants. Intel's strategy to become a dominant player in AI chip manufacturing, even as it competes with its own products, highlights the sector's expansive potential and the opportunities for companies like Marvell.

Street Views

• Timothy Arcuri, UBS (Bullish on Marvell Technology):

  "MRVL hit back at some recent debates and laid a case that, next to NVDA, it is the company in the sector that is most levered to AI given its broad [intellectual property] portfolio and leverage across the data center."

• Harlan Sur, JPMorgan (Bullish on Marvell Technology):

  "Bottom line, if the team can execute on its datacenter growth strategy and capture 17% share of the datacenter [total addressable market] opportunity in CY28, we can conservatively see $6-$7 of EPS during this period of time - which implies significant upside in the stock."

• Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs (Bullish on Marvell Technology):

  "Expects the growing total addressable market within the compute industry and its “comprehensive” product portfolio to enable Marvell to obtain “above-industry growth” in the coming years."

• Gary Mobley, Wells Fargo (Bullish on Marvell Technology):

  "We view MRVL as more of an idiosyncratic chip company, one that outperforms the overall chip industry growth rate in good and bad times... We believe MRVL is in a position to grow revenue at a 15-20% pace over the long term."

• Joseph Moore, Morgan Stanley (Neutral/Cautiously Optimistic on Marvell Technology but prefers Nvidia):

  "We would see this story on the positive side of the AI debates, and the company made a strong case, but we do have a preference for NVDA with stocks at current levels."