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Crypto

Elon Musk Stays Tesla CEO with 12% Exit Chance, 400K Deliveries Predicted

Musk likely to stay as Tesla CEO amid challenges, as prediction markets focus on his tweets and political outcomes.

By Alex P. Chase

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5/6, 08:54 EDT
Bitcoin / U.S. dollar
Tesla, Inc.
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Key Takeaway

  • Prediction markets show a 12% chance Elon Musk will leave as Tesla CEO this year, despite company challenges.
  • Markets predict stable Tesla deliveries, with over 400,000 vehicles expected this quarter.
  • Donald Trump faces a 76% chance of conviction before the election but only a 17% chance of jail time.

Musk's Leadership Amid Tesla's Challenges

Elon Musk, the visionary behind Tesla, is facing scrutiny over his management style and the strategic direction of the company. Tesla, once a pioneer in the electric vehicle (EV) market, is now grappling with falling sales, increased competition, especially from China, and the need for drastic cost-cutting measures, including staff reductions and simplified car builds. Despite these challenges, prediction markets like Kalshi suggest a low probability (12%) of Musk stepping down as CEO within the year. This sentiment is echoed in the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket, where bettors are more focused on Musk's social media activity than his potential departure from Tesla.

Prediction Markets on Political and Legal Outcomes

The prediction markets are not just limited to corporate leadership but extend to political and legal outcomes, notably involving former U.S. President Donald Trump. Polymarket bettors give a 76% chance of Trump being convicted before the next election day, although the likelihood of him serving jail time remains low at 17%. This reflects a broader skepticism about the consequences Trump might face despite facing multiple serious charges. The markets also suggest a tepid impact on the incumbent president, Joe Biden, with Trump's chances in the next election slightly increasing.

The CFTC's Stance on Political Betting

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is poised to discuss the legality of political betting in the U.S., a move that could significantly impact platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. This discussion comes amid a lawsuit involving Kalshi and the CFTC, highlighting the regulatory challenges and the demand for legal political betting markets in the U.S. The outcome of this legal battle and the CFTC's decision could reshape the landscape of prediction markets in the U.S., especially as the country heads into another contentious election cycle.