Bitcoin VRP Drops to 2.5%, Signals Market Stability Ahead

Key Takeaway

• Bitcoin's Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) collapses to 2.5% from 15%, indicating a low volatility market ahead, post-halving.
• Ether's VRP remains higher at 8.5%, reflecting greater uncertainty compared to Bitcoin, partly due to pending SEC ETF decisions.
• Market consensus suggests less future volatility for Bitcoin, with stable prices around $62,400 since the recent halving event.

Bitcoin's Resilient Recovery

Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience, stabilizing in the $63,000 to $64,000 range during the Asian and European mornings on Tuesday. This stabilization marks a significant recovery from the previous week's dip below $57,000, with the cryptocurrency now comfortably hovering above the $60,000 threshold. Despite a slight retreat from Monday's peak of approximately $65,500, Bitcoin's price at $64,114 indicates a stable position. This recovery, reflecting a 10% increase since the beginning of May, follows a 16% decline in April, showcasing the volatile nature of the crypto market. The broader digital asset market, however, experienced a 1.33% drop, as indicated by the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20).

Legal Battles and New Exchanges

Robinhood, known for its conservative approach to digital asset listings, faces a surprising Wells Notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Broker KBW suggests that Robinhood has a strong chance of prevailing in a potential court battle due to its stringent listing standards. However, clarity on the outcome may not emerge until late 2025. Meanwhile, digital bank Revolut has launched its new crypto exchange, Revolut X, targeting professional cryptocurrency traders with competitive fees, including zero fees for trade makers and 0.09% for takers. This move positions Revolut among the first banks to establish a standalone crypto exchange, aiming to attract users with lower fees compared to its app.

Market Sentiment and Institutional Interest

The crypto market has witnessed a strong rebound, with Bitcoin nearing $65,000 and erasing the losses from the previous week. This surge is attributed to a bullish sentiment following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's announcement ruling out further tightening or rate hikes. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reported its first daily inflow in almost four months, signaling a positive shift in investor sentiment. Additionally, the options market has seen increased demand for Bitcoin call options, with traders betting on the cryptocurrency reaching new highs, potentially surpassing $75,000 and even aiming for $100,000.

Street Views

• Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX (Neutral on Bitcoin):

  "Bitcoin (BTC) had bottomed out, but the expected move higher is likely to be slow."

• Analysts at Bitfinex (Bullish on Bitcoin's post-halving environment):

  "The significant narrowing of the VRP indicates a realignment of market expectations to a more stable and predictable environment post-halving... The market consensus seems to be that future volatility may be less than previously anticipated following the halving."