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HF Sinclair Eyes Beat with 20.54% Avg, +4.55% ESP

HF Sinclair poised for another earnings beat with a 20.54% average surprise and a positive Earnings ESP of +4.55%.

By Alex P. Chase

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5/9, 10:34 EDT
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Key Takeaway

  • HF Sinclair has a history of earnings surprises, with an average beat of 20.54% over the past two quarters.
  • With a Zacks Earnings ESP of +4.55% and a Rank #2 (Buy), another earnings beat for HF Sinclair seems likely.
  • Despite potential earnings success, investors should weigh other factors as stock performance post-earnings can vary.

Earnings Expectations

HF Sinclair, an independent energy company, is under the spotlight as it approaches its next earnings report date on May 8, 2024. The company has a notable history of surpassing earnings expectations, with an average surprise of 20.54% over the past two quarters. In its most recent quarter, HF Sinclair reported earnings of $0.87 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.67 per share by 29.85%. The quarter before that, it outperformed expectations again by reporting earnings of $4.06 per share against the forecasted $3.65 per share, marking an 11.23% surprise.

Analyst Optimism

The positive trend in earnings surprises has led to a favorable shift in earnings estimates for HF Sinclair. The company currently holds a Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +4.55%, indicating analysts' growing confidence in its near-term earnings potential. This optimism is further supported by HF Sinclair's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), suggesting that another earnings beat could be imminent. The Zacks Earnings ESP is a predictive model that suggests stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better have a high chance of beating earnings estimates.

Market Implications

While HF Sinclair's track record and the positive Earnings ESP point towards potential success, it's important to note that an earnings beat is not the sole factor influencing stock performance. Stocks may react differently post-earnings releases, with some maintaining stability even if they miss consensus estimates. Therefore, investors are encouraged to consider the company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to better gauge the likelihood of an earnings beat and its potential impact on stock performance.